It’s the 17th of January 2019 as I write this. This
means that in 71 days’ time the United Kingdom will no longer be a member of
the European Union and will become a “third country” with absolutely no special
arrangements for its political, legal or commercial relationships with the
Union or its remaining 27 member states. This decision has already been taken
by Parliament following the 2016 referendum. No further action is needed by
anyone to enable this outcome.
This week’s entertainment in Westminster has revolved around an
attempt by Theresa May to put in place some modest arrangements that will limit
the adverse impact of that cliff-edge transition to third country status. Mrs
May’s proposed agreement with the EU was rejected by the House of Commons in
the biggest parliamentary defeat ever suffered by a British government so it is
quite clear that it is now dead in the water. Where on earth do we go from
here?
First of all, let me put my cards on the table. I am a Remainer.
I believe very strongly that with all its faults (and there are many), membership
of the European Union represents the best way forward for the UK and its people
in the world of the twenty-first century. My first preference would be for
Parliament to reassert its sovereignty, examine the evidence and conclude that
a 52/48 majority in an advisory referendum that was marred by illegal
campaigning and misinformation is not sufficient to justify the precipitous step
that we will take on 29 March.
That’s my first preference but it ain’t going to happen. We need
a plan B. We need a plan B that is acceptable to enough people in Parliament
and the country that it can be implemented and accepted. Almost by definition
it will not satisfy the ultras on either side of the argument so it has to win
a lot of support in the middle ground. This is my attempt at a plan B.
1. The UK rejoins EFTA,
the European Free Trade Association, which it left in 1972 when it joined the
European Community as it was at that time. As an EFTA member it also applies to
join the European Economic Area which ensures that it remains inside the
European Single market.
2. The UK agrees a Customs Union with the European Union.
3. The UK introduces those controls on movement of people, such
as limiting the time that EU citizens are able to remain in the country without
a job, that have always been available but never implemented
These actions would take time and it is vanishingly unlikely
that they could be achieved in the next 70 days. However I believe that the EU27
would look favourably on a request to extend the Article 50 period if the UK
were committed to this course of action.
So far so good. This is essentially the “Norway Plus” option
that has attracted some, but not enough, support. It would honour the
referendum result as the UK would be out of the political structures of the EU
and would no longer be part of polices in agriculture and fisheries. Furthermore
it would see a significant reduction in its membership dues. The down side of
this from a Leaver perspective is that it would be “Brexit in Name Only”. The
UK would become a “rule taker” and would be obliged to follow regulations that
it has no part in setting. This is why we need to move to step 4.
4. The UK determines that this arrangement has a strict time
limit. Five years might be appropriate but arguments could be made for other
periods. I recognise that there are difficulties with this suggestion due to
the convention that no Parliament may bind its successors. It will require constitutional
lawyers and other experts to determine a solution but I am sure that the brains
that brought us the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011 can find a way through.
5. During that period a body is constituted to forensically examine
all available evidence around the UK’s place in the world and the relationships
it needs to have in the future. The body could be a Royal Commission, a Select
Committee of Parliament or some other structure. The essential requirement is
that it reflects the deep divisions in the country and has a commitment to reconciling
them as far as possible. Before the period is up this body makes its
recommendations to Parliament which could be
· Make the temporary
EEA/Customs Union arrangements permanent
· Replace the arrangement
with some other set of agreements that better reflect the interests of the
British people
· Apply to rejoin
the European Union on the best terms that can be negotiated
· Rescind all
agreements and become a real third country, outside all international
agreements
5. Parliament takes the recommendations of the review body and
legislates accordingly.
So that’s it. That’s my Plan B. It has some advantages and some
drawbacks.
On the plus side it honours the result of the referendum. We
leave the European Union but we do so without a knife-edge on March 29th.
There is no need for a hard border in Ireland or customs checks at Dover. Industries
that rely on just in time production would not be hamstrung. UK services
industries would be able to continue operating in Europe. We would have
breathing space to make a proper evaluation of future courses of action and the
time necessary to implement them without major disruption.
The down side is that it would further extend a process that
many people already believe has gone on too long. Those who want to see an
immediate end to free movement would need to be patient. It would delay the UK’s
ability to negotiate independent trade agreements but that would be balanced by
continuing to benefit from those that the EU has in place.
It is tempting to finish with reference to the corny old joke
about asking for directions and being told “I wouldn’t start from here if I
were you”. The fact is we are here and whatever direction we take has to start
from where we are. I think that this plan could be an outline of a way forward
that isn’t a disaster. It’s the best that I can come up with. What about you?
